Volatility, uncertainty continue to influence economic outlook
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IPC report shows inflation rates, recession fears persist in early months of 2023
COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, soaring global inflation rates and recession fears were major contributors to the cloud of uncertainty in 2022 and also to slower global economic growth, according to IPC Association’s December Economic Outlook report.
“Many believe a recession is a foregone conclusion in 2023,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “I expect about a third of the world economy will likely be in recession in 2023. Global economic growth has already fallen, slipping from six percent in 2021 to about 3.2 percent in 2022. Global growth is expected to slow further in 2023, clocking in at less than two percent,” DuBravac added.
Additional data in report show:
- Global inflation rose from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 and should fall to around 6.5 percent in 2023 and four percent in 2024.
- U.S. economic activity is expected to increase just 0.3 percent in 2023.
- U.S. industrial production fell 0.2 percent in November, the second straight month of decline. Despite the weak November results, production of consumer goods was up 1.8 percent in the past year and production of business equipment was up 5.7 percent.
- In Europe, electronics manufacturing output fell in October after two months of growth. Output decreased 2 percent (month-on-month), but production remains high. Output is up 4.4 percent over the last year.