COVID-19 impact on electronics supply chain
ECIA releases latest research results
Electronic Components Industry Association (ECIA) chief analyst Dale Ford has released the latest results of its member survey about the impact of Coronavirus on the electronic component supply chain.
In order to provide important visibility, ECIA has been conducting surveys of member manufacturing and distributor companies to gain an understanding of this fluid situation. ECIA published the results of the first survey which ended February 7, 2020 in a report released on February 11th. ECIA conducted a second survey which concluded February 21, 2020 and was published February 24, 2020.
Expect the impact of the crisis to be moderate
This most recent survey was conducted between Monday, March 2nd and Friday, March 6th. To this point, it appears that the largest number of companies with visibility on the supply chain expect the impact of the crisis to be moderate and the disruption to last until somewhere between the end of April and the end of May. However, it appears that lead times are expected to increase on average between 2 to 3 weeks for electronic components.
“Reports indicate that factories in China are returning to normal levels and workers are returning. Unfortunately, the spread of the virus has triggered panic on many levels around the world and this has exacerbated the crisis,” Ford explained in the Executive Summary of the survey results.
Current semiconductor forecasts
ECIA plans to conduct a fourth survey at an appropriate time depending on continued developments.
Last week, ECIA recorded a webinar about the survey and other data related to the electronic components supply chain. In it, Ford discusses current semiconductor forecasts. “Semiconductors can act as a proxy for the wider components industry,” he explained. “Up until the end of January, forecasts were encouraging, and it looked like the industry would enter a growth phase in early 2020 and mark the start of a new cycle in the industry. Concerns over the virus have sucked all the life out of the room regarding those predictions. The high degree of uncertainty in markets from Wall Street to Main Street make it difficult to predict the future of the electronics component in the near-term. At this point, possible outcomes range widely. Optimistically, there is hope for a snapback in the second half of the year if the virus can be brought under control in the first half. In a more painful scenario, a multi-year decline could result if the global economy is damaged severely by a long-lasting global pandemic that continues through 2020,” he concluded.
The recording of the webinar can be found on the Training and Resources page of the ECIA website. A synopsis of the latest survey results can be found on the Coronavirus Resource page; ECIA members should log into the site to access complete report.