InForum's electronics forecast projects industry recovery rate
InForum's annual Five Year Forecast for the Electronics Manufacturing Industry was released to members November 5th at the Silicon Valley Q4 Forum. Matt Chanoff, Chief Economist, described both TAM and electronics outsourcing to return to annualized growth of 5% in the next 12-24 months following an estimated 9% contraction for 2009.
InForum sized the total available market for the electronics manufacturing industry at $1.3T in 2008, estimates it to retract to $1.2T in 2009, and predicts growth to reach $1.4T by 2013. InForum sized the EMS industry at $127B in 2008, estimates it to retract to $103B in 2009, and forecasts that the industry will grow to $127B again by 2013. The ODM industry was sized at $116B in 2008, $107B for 2009, and forecasted to grow to $135B by 2013. A major influence on this year’s forecast was the manner in which InForum treated the revenues for Foxconn, which for the first time were not all included in the EMS sector, but broken out between the EMS and ODM industries.
Mr. Chanoff identified the industry segments with the greatest outsourcing growth potential in this area to include automotive, medical and aerospace and defense. Matt described demand drivers for the overall industry and outsourced manufacturing specifically to support the current projections and the forecasting process he leads for InForum. “Forecasting isn’t a perfect science,” commented Mr. Chanoff, “but I’m proud of our track record. We also make a point of being very transparent about our approach, and we focus on giving clients a broader picture, so that they can keep an eye on important growth drivers, integrate our forecasts into their internal planning processes, and improve their own forecasting.” Many members rely on this report as a baseline for their forecast, as it provides industry segment and regional detail.
InForum President, Kathleen Geraghty commented on the projected return to growth and accuracy of InForum’s forecast. “We are encouraged by a wide range of evidence that the recovery is underway. Our forecast reflects a rigorous process to provide a meaningful set of data points the industry can use to plan their future demand. We are also proud to reveal the outstanding track record of the Five Year Forecast, which is accurate to within 5% and applaud the team’s conscientious effort to deliver the industry such credible and critical information for business planning.”