While this is a minor improvement in the market outlook, it is a major shift upward from the sharp declines in transceiver sales reported in late 2008 – early 2009. LightCounting maintains a conservative 5% growth projection for 2010, considering the uncertainty of timing a sustainable economic recovery. Double-digit growth will likely follow in 2011-2013, as the optical networking industry rushes to meet steadily growing bandwidth demand.
Key indicators of the improving market include:
– Higher than expected transceiver sales by vendors focused on the Asian market, which are likely to post 5-15% increases in annual sales.
– Majority of optical transceiver suppliers reported increasing orders in Q2 2009 and projected 5-10% revenue growth for the last two quarters of 2009.
– FTTx deployments continue strong despite the downturn, as carriers race to provide new voice, video, and data service bundles to bandwidth-hungry consumers.
– Bandwidth utilization in optical networking infrastructure remains high.
– Datacenter upgrades are gaining momentum again, as competition among content providers intensifies ahead of the imminent economic recovery.
"Despite reported market improvements, service providers are likely to stay prudent and favor incumbent technologies," commented Dr. Vladimir Kozlov, founder and CEO of LightCounting. "This trend will sustain the SONET/SDH market through 2011-2013, while delays in the adoption of 100-GigE interfaces will open the door for 40-GigE to become the higher-speed Ethernet of choice for most applications."
This report presents historical data from 2006-2008 and a detailed market forecast through 2013 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, Optical Interconnects, and Active Optical Cables, sorted into over 100 product categories. The report includes detailed forecasts for XFP and XFP-E 10 Gbps tunable transceivers as well as QSFP, CFP and CXP, 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps modules. The 2006-2008 sales data accounts for 30 transceiver vendors, with more than 25 sharing confidential sales data with LightCounting.